Budget pacing forecasts, explained

A pacing forecast answers one question: given how this month has gone so far, where will spend land on the last day?

The naive version divides spend-to-date by days elapsed and multiplies out. That ignores weekday seasonality, learning-phase resets and the fact that your own interventions change the curve.

Adnostiq models each campaign's delivery pattern separately and reports a range rather than a point. When the top of that range crosses your budget, you get a pacing flag with enough lead time to act on it.